Is Productivity Responsible For Drop In Commodity Prices?
13 February 15 10:01 AM | Brian Dightman

One of the more perplexing developments in the economic recovery from the Great Recession is the collapsing prices of commodities. During an economic expansion demand for commodities typically rises, sending prices higher. That has not been the case in this recovery.

Metals, agriculture, energy, livestock and cotton - all of these commodities are trading at prices well below levels at the start of 2012.

The economic growth rate coming out of the Great Recession has been uneven, inconsistent and underwhelming. But the economy is growing. We only need to look at the recovery in corporate sales and earnings for hard evidence. Why then are prices for commodities essentially collapsing?

Could it be productivity is also reducing the amount of materials we consume, much like it has structurally changed the employment market? After all, we have gone from mobile phones the size and weight of a brick to those of a paper weight. Are products lasting longer, extending the replacement cycle?

One exception in the general commodity price behavior of this recovery can be found in timber prices.


Timber has seen a rise in price and it is one of the few renewable resources, so what gives? Paper production is one of the primary uses for timber. What is one of the primary areas paper is used? That’s right, packaging. This might explain why timber has been able to see prices rise and would also confirm part of the growth in corporate sales. Could it be companies are selling products which require more packaging material than product material?

An examination of the entire supply chain may shed more light on developments in commodity markets that have led to a reduction in prices. Could it be the process of extracting, refining, and shipping raw materials has gone through a revolution similar to fracking in the energy industry?

I ask this question as the Nasdaq is on the verge of breaching its all-time high, 15 years later. There have been periods during the recovery from the Great Recession where it seemed unlikely the S&P 500 would be able to make that mark. We now look back on that accomplishment.

Central bank policy and its influence most definitely complicates analysis in this economic recovery.  But as innovation advances along with the prices of stocks it is reasonable to suggest fundamental changes in productivity may have played a role in the price declines experienced in those markets at a time of economic expansion.

I will leave readers with one more thought to ponder. An industry very closely related to all of the commodity markets has done very well during the recovery. If you have not looked yet the chart below is from the Chemical industry.


Could it be their advancements have contributed to the price pressures of commodities markets? After all, there are a lot of chemicals used to bring commodities to market.

There are many factors driving the supply and demand of each commodity market. Some are related, others are unique. Despite these differences a large portion of the commodities complex is under pricing pressure at a time where the U.S. and much of the world economy is growing. If the price declines are primarily based on weak demand we can eventually expect a recession to arrive.  And if commodity price declines are any indication of what is in store, look out below. If something else is at work, perhaps this recovery will last a bit longer than some might expect.  Commodities look to be attempting a bottom here and could turn out to be the story that shapes 2015.

Oil and the U.S. Economy
17 January 15 07:52 AM | Brian Dightman

With the price of gasoline at the pump falling some investors are confused about how that could be bad for the U.S. economy.  The topic of lower prices or more broadly, deflation, is complex.  As much as monetary policy makers consider deflation to the equivalent of kryptonite to Superman, the fact of the matter is many prices have continuously fallen and industry still thrives (think televisions).  Intuitively it is reasonable to believe less money spent on energy costs by consumers would lead to spending in other areas.  However, you have to take into account the impact lower oil prices might have on the energy industry as a whole.

The energy sector in the U.S. represents approximately 8% of the U.S. economy.  The shale and fracking exploration booms have increased employment (many are high paying jobs) and capital expenditures in the industry.  Some economists attribute the boom in the energy industry as a major contributor to the U.S. economic recovery since the 2008 recession; it may be playing a more important economic role than many realize.

The price of oil must maintain a minimum level to justify the costs of drilling.  Back in 2008 it was estimated that the equilibrium for oil exploration in the U.S. was around $70 a barrel.  It is believe to be higher today due to the more challenging drilling techniques being deployed (horizontal fracking).

If oil falls below the equilibrium cost to drill explorers shut down production and cancel capital expenditures, both of which are happening as the price of oil falls.

While lower prices at the pump are welcome by consumers, the weak consumer spending in December suggests any saving at the pump is not necessarily being spent.

The more perplexing challenge is trying to determine if the decline in oil is based on increases in supply or decreases in demand.  Generally speaking you don't want to see a decrease in demand.  That would suggest a slowing economy.  In the U.S demand is somewhat flat as a function of better MPG, migration to cities, and telecommuting (the inconsistent economic recovery may also be responsible for lighter energy demand in the U.S.).  Normally energy use would be increasing during an economic growth cycle but technology and structural changes are at play.  Globally we would expect countries like China and India to see a big demand increase based on their large populations and modernizing economies.  However, other explorers are now using the same techniques pioneered in the U.S. to increase oil extraction globally so supply issues are certainly at play.  Over the longer-term low-cost energy should be a plus for the global economy.

In terms of economic growth, for the balance of this decade it will be important for the price of oil to find equilibrium  Ideally that equilibrium will allow the energy industry in the U.S. to continue expanding exploration and the capital expenditures and jobs that come with it.

Bullishness Returns
04 October 14 01:40 PM | Brian Dightman

After being under pressure most of September Friday's market rally added to gains from Thursday to help stocks finish the week with strength.

The U.S. received a good employment report on Friday helping to push stocks higher.  It wasn't too strong or too weak, the number was just about right.  With the employment picture stabilizing confidence is returning to the economy, a helpful ingredient as we enter into the 4th quarter retail season.

The Dightman Capital Leading Stocks portfolio had an excellent day Friday with 12 of 28 stocks generating returns of greater than 2%.  6 stocks posted gains of 3% or higher.  Only 5 stocks experienced declines of -1.2% or less.

After strong performance in August stocks gave back gains in September; July experienced a small decline.  On balance global stocks turned in small losses for Q3 which  may turn out to be a good setup for Q4.  Year-to-date stocks have delivered low single-digit positive returns.

International stocks, especially developed markets, have experienced a deeper correction and have not shown as much conviction in their recovery.  Stagnant economic growth and high debt levels appear to be the main culprits on top of a growing list of geopolitical issues.

Russian sanctions are having a significant impact on parts of an already struggling European economy.  Japan recently suffered its biggest economic contraction since 2009, triggered by a consumer-tax increase.  China's economy it at risk of delivering less than a 7.5% target growth-rate as factory output delivered its slowest expansion in 5 years and the real estate market starts to slump.  Unrest in Hong Kong is certainly not helping.

There is a lot of talk in the financial press about the stock market being at a top.  That may turn out to be true but recent market strength, especially in leading stocks, suggests there may be more upside.   In the current correction other risk assets stabilized ahead of stocks which delivered a sense of clam in other parts of the market.  Currency markets are in a bit of frenzy.  The Dollar has advanced while the Yen & Euro tumbled.  Staying the course and overweighting U.S. stocks has so far been the right path for growth investors in 2014.

As we move into Q4 I will be communicating some updates to the Global Growth strategies at Dightman Capital.  In an effort to provide more service the Moderate Global Growth strategy will emphasize more income oriented investments.  The benchmark will remain the same.

The most exciting announcement will be the stock strategy I expect to announce later this quarter.  After many years of following leading stocks I have developed an investment strategy I feel confident I can deliver.  I have already personally invested one of my accounts in the new strategy.  This strategy is designed to be more aggressive than the Aggressive Global Growth strategy but does incorporate risk-management elements.  I look forward to sharing more details with you in the future.

Bullishness remains in the air but investors have been reminded stocks can get ahead of themselves and when factors that drive earnings are impacted stocks take notice.  Seasoned investors are well aware of the length of the current market rally and the complacency the can accompany it.  Market pullbacks are healthy but it was nice to finish last week on strength.  It makes the weekend that much easier to enjoy!

Absent Strong Q2 Earnings, Significant Correction Could Materialize
08 July 14 09:42 AM | Brian Dightman

With the 4th of July weekend behind us now is a great time to start thinking about how the summer might shape for stocks and bonds.  All of the geopolitical turmoil aside, there are two major themes likely to shape the near-term performance of U.S. stocks and bonds:  Interest Rates and Earnings.

A rise in short-term lending rates is not expected until the second half of 2015 and from the current ultra-low levels a tick up is not expected to inflict much damage on the stock market initially.  At least that is how stocks have behaved in the past.  Generally it is after a series or rate hikes in an attempt to cool inflation that rate hikes become problematic for the stock market.  The last couple of rate hike cycles did not occur after a prolonged period of ultra-low rates so it is reasonable to expect a different reaction when rates do start to move higher but that is not expected any time soon.

Earnings, on the other hand, are expected to have grown by around 5% duiring the second quarter as reported by Factset.  This will represent a significant pickup from Q1's 3.3% earnings growth decline.  A slowdown in earnings growth would be more problematic for the current stock market rally.  Just this morning Walmart CEO, Bill Simon, suggested their customers are not spending on a consistent basis.  If a slowdown in consumer spending during Q2 turns out to be a broader issue we could see an impact on both sales and earnings growth by U.S. companies.  This could prove challenging for the stock market because as the graphic below illustrates,  the stock market may be entering a less forgiving stage.

After the approximately 55% decline during the credit crash of 2008-2009 the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) went on to post a 195% gain in just over 5 years.

Compare the current rally to the prior rally from the DotCom Crash of 2000.

After the approximately 48% decline in the SPY during the tech crash of 2000-2003 the ETF when on to post a 107% return in just over 5 years.

The two recoveries are very different and there are numerous dynamics involved.  Currently stocks don't appear expensive based on forward earnings expectations.  If those expectations are not met we should expect a correction.  A close look at price action in the current rally is also absence downside volatility the last couple of years.  We are also reminded by the two graphics above the current market could be entering what is often referred to as the euphoric stage of the market cycle.  This would be the final phase before a significant correction materializes.

So far it has been a decent year for both stocks and bonds.  Bonds should hold their ground if earnings disappoint and stocks correct.  On the other hand, if earnings support current price action bonds will likely correct as stocks rally.  It is all about Q2 earnings and by the end of next week we should have a pretty good indication of how things are going to shape up for stocks and bonds this summer.

The Black Hole of Debt Expansion
29 May 14 08:49 AM | Brian Dightman


  • Bonds rally the day after stocks follow through.
  • 30-year yield back around 3.25%.
  • No U.S. economic acceleration, says the bond market.

I recently published a mostly positive commentary on the stock market suggesting the balance of 2014 would be good for stocks as long as interest rates remained low. Outside of economic growth accelerating over the next couple of months, I feel rates are not likely to move higher in 2014. In terms of the ability for the economy to accelerate, I acknowledge that it could happen, but I expect the current slow pace of growth to continue.

When referring to interest rates, I was referencing the short-term lending rate controlled by The Fed called the Discount Rate. When The Fed becomes concerned about the economy overheating (inflation) they raise the discount rate, which usually moves rates up along the maturity term. There has been some talk of rate hikes by The Fed in 2015, but the bond market remains unconvinced. The Fed can also influence rates with QE and the current program is on track to conclude later this year. What we have seen in 2014 is a bond market ready to drive up the prices of bonds without The Fed's participation.

On Wednesday, the day after the stock market followed through on its current rally attempt, bond prices shot higher. The Pimco Zero 20+ Coupon Bond Fund (ZROZ) jumped up 2.54% and The Vanguard Extended Duration Bond Fund (EDV) rose 1.85%. The iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) hit a new all-time high and the iShares Core Long-Term US Bond Fund (ILTB) is up 12.1% YTD! Bonds have been one of the best performing asset classes so far in 2014, which may be telling us not all is well with the U.S. economy.

With stocks wavering most of the year, it's not surprising bonds have rallied. But these numbers appear too strong for an economy about to shift into a higher gear, especially after stocks are starting to show some strength.

Tuesday, the stock market followed through on the rally it has been trying to get started since stocks sold off in March and April. If stocks are about to start another leg up, why are investors continuing to chase bonds when interest rates are already puny? Outside of a known long-term cash outflow commitment (think insurance contracts or pension commitments that are not adjusted for inflation), what type of investor would be willing to accept a long-term bond yield around 3.25% with duration risk in the high teens? The answer -- an investor that believes the economy is going to contract and potentailly lead to some deflation.

On the surface, it may be hard to acknowledge the threat of deflation during a time where the S&P 500 has rallied 180% from 2009 lows (40% higher than 2007 highs), but that may be exactly what the bond market is signaling.

Wednesday's bond buying was attributed to money leaving Europe because of rate adjustments down by the ECB to ward off, you guessed it, deflation. The bond market does not believe the improvement in economic numbers, after the winter weather setback, will be maintained. As a matter of fact, it may be telling us the U.S. economy is more likely to contract during the balance of year. Only time will tell if the U.S. economy can escape the black hole of debt expansion. In the meantime, it looks like I may need to change my outlook for stocks in 2014, because if deflation materializes, it will not be kind to the stock market.

Market Update - Balance of 2014 looks to be constructive for stocks
27 May 14 09:00 AM | Brian Dightman

The Memorial Day Holiday is a great weekend for reflection.  In between the special events and family gatherings it always seems as though there are a few extra quiet moments for thought about the future.  The timing of this holiday is also only one month short of the mid-point in the year so it's also an interesting time to check on investment markets and the factors that drive them:  Interest Rates, Economy, & Earnings.

Interest Rates

Interest rates remain very accommodative in the U.S. and are likely to remain so through the middle of 2015.  Whether that is enough to keep the market rally alive remains to be seen.  Even talk of rates rising a year out can give pause to the market and is one of the primary risks to this rally.  We have seen The Fed successfully implement a QE extraction program so maybe they can manage the interest rate dynamic equally well.


The U.S. economy still lacks momentum and remains jittery but overall continues to improve.   After weakness attributed primarily to winter weather, month-over-month growth has continued in the big four indicators:

  • Industrial Production
  • Real Income
  • Employment
  • Real Sales

Growth has accelerated in February and March especially in terms of Industrial Production and Real Sales.  If this pattern continues pressure to raise interest rates will mount. The Fed wants to see the economy grow a bit faster than the current rate, especially in labor metrics, but not to fast.  Some observers point out pent up demand from the impact of cold weather this winter has driven the recent spikes up and once demand is met monthly growth will fall back to the 0.1-0.3% rate that has made up much of this recovery.  As we move further into the summer we should have a better idea of the momentum behind recent economic acceleration.


490 companies of the have reported 1st quarter earnings as of May 23rd.  74% reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% reported sales above the mean estimate.  For Q2 79 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 26 companies issued positive EPS guidance.  The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 15.3, above both the 5-year average (13.2) and 10-year average (13.8).

If we take a look at the actual and estimated earnings for the S&P 500 it becomes clear earnings growth is expected to pick up throughout 2014 when compared to 2013.  At this point analysts are expecting earnings to increase by $1.18 or 4.24% in Q2 and continue growing at 4-5% in Q3 and Q4.  Continued improvement in the U.S. economy will be an important component to realizing these numbers.

Source:  Factset Earnings Insight May 23, 2014


2014 has been an up and down ride for stocks.  You may recall all of the major broad U.S stock indexes ended the month of January with declines which is often a precursor to result for the balance of the year.  Since 1950 the Stock Trader's Almanac reports there have only been 7 "errors" where the full-year results did not follow the results that were generated in January.  2014 is a midterm election year which delivers its own set of statistics.  The -8% decline experienced by the Dow at the end of January may mark the midterm low, which has often been an excellent buying opportunity.  Given the more recent selloff in small/mid-cap aggressive growth stocks there may still be time to take advantage of any rally that helps the year finish with gains.  Markets have been mostly marketing time this spring, moving sideways since early March.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 have gone on to hit new all-time highs recently.  The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (small cap) need to play catch up but action last week may indicate stocks are ready to resume another leg up.  Price action was very constructive in the broad market and many market leading stocks started to rally after being under intense selling pressure the last few weeks.  The only element missing was volume which could pick up if more participants get behind the rally attempt.  We could see evidence of this as early as this week.

Despite unrest in some parts of the world, recent election in Europe and the Ukraine are likely to be viewed as positive developments by the market.

If economic growth finally accelerates the Fed is very likely to start moving rates up in mid-2015.  From their current ultra-low level we may only see a moderate impact on stock prices initially.  If economic growth continues to heat up and it is believed The Fed will move rates higher then we could see a more negative impact on the stock market.  This would be the classic manner in which stock market appreciation is dimmed.  The direction of interest rates likely holds the key for the direction of the stock market for the balance of 2014 and the start of 2015.

At this point there is little risk of the economy "over heating" and interest rates spiking unless recent economic momentum continues through the summer and into the fall.  Otherwise it looks like a combination of moderate economic growth could keep concerns about interest rates in check for the balance of 2014 which should be positive for the stock market.

Market Deception & The 2013 Exception
27 January 14 08:05 AM | Brian Dightman

The strong market performance of the S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq (QQQ) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) in 2013 was certainly a welcome surprise. Five years into this rally few expected to see the strongest market returns since 1997. Often it is the early years of a bull market that serve up the best returns. 2009 did not disappoint after the brutal 2008 decline. Subsequent years seemed to follow a pattern of positive but smaller returns until 2012 delivered another strong year only to be followed by the phenomenal returns of 2013. The market is constantly serving up deception and 2013 was no exception.

So what does 2014 have in store?

2013 finished well but the few trading days of the New Year have delivered a less than desirable start. January is going to be an important month to watch, perhaps more so than usual. Market returns from January are often a strong predictor of the outcome for the year.

On page 12 of the 2014 Stock Market Almanac we read, "Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, a flat market, or a 10% correction". Page 42 of this year's issue goes on to catalogue the 24 instances that support their claim, 10 of which were listed as continued bear markets; a condition that cannot materialize in 2014 because the market is clearly in a 5 year uptrend. If the S&P experiences declines this January look for a new bear market, a flat market or a 10% correction to materialize.

You may find the "2014 Look Ahead" column in the January 6th issue of Investor's Business Daily (IBD) somewhat more helpful. Their data back to 1900 suggest only 7 times prior to 2012-2013 has the stock market delivered back-to-back accelerating double digit returns after a down year (The Nasdaq suffered a minor loss in 2011). The article goes on to explain what happened the following year and unfortunately the data is not encouraging. Only 1 year was positive and one year was flat, but 5 years saw declines. More troubling, 4 out of the 5 losses were steep - down 11%, 17%, 18% and 33%. If an ugly market does materialize IBD will quickly bring it to investors' attention in their "Big Picture" column, a daily read for me.

This January, perhaps more than some, it may pay to not only watch market action closely but too be prepared to take action. Given the propensity of this market to deceive I'm prepared for (but not expecting) another banner year in 2014. I will not be surprised if we first experience a brutal correction that convinces many the market is going much lower. That, I believe, is because so often market deception leads to market exceptions, despite all the statistical analysis that might suggest otherwise.

[IBD noted the following regarding the 2014 Look Ahead article I referenced: Data in the article were based on the Dow Jones industrial average for 1900-62, the S&P 500 for 1963-81 and the Nasdaq from 1982 to present.]

Dightman Capital Commentary Q1 2013
23 April 13 09:24 AM | Brian Dightman

The sell-off in gold over the last several days is a major development in global markets.  Since early October gold is down around 25%.  Ultimately this may turn out to be a buying opportunity but it is too early to tell.

It appears inflation expectations, one of the major drivers for the higher price of gold, is off the table for the time being.  Yes, The Fed has pumped a lot of money into major banks but that money has not found its way into the broader economy.  The velocity of money and the expansion of total credit remain at very low levels and until they move higher broad inflation is not likely to be problematic.  On the contrary, it is starting to look like we may be entering another deflationary phase where stocks and real estate prices could come under some pricing pressure.

I am not suggesting there is no inflation.  However, when comparing inflation measures overtime between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the GDP Deflator (GDP-D) the two indexes tend to measure very similar levels of inflation.  Right now they are suggesting we have low levels of broad inflation.

Inflation has also been held in check because each week reports confirm the economy is only growing slowly and the trend inconsistent.  We have yet to see the level of broad economic improvement needed for the economy to stand on its own.  In this environment even mild austerity could curtail future economic growth.  We know the Fed has renewed their concern about deflation because this Wednesday St. Louis Fed Chief Bullard stated The Fed may INCREASE the size of QE "to defend the inflation target from the low side."  Any weakness in stock or real estate prices may be limited by The Feds support of those markets.

Another place were inflation has been absent is input costs for corporations where prices have been growing only slightly, remain stable or are falling which helps to explain how companies continue to squeeze out profits.  It helps that consumers have been willing to maintain spending levels.  Eventually consumers spending may contract once the current round of home refinancing is over and credit card limits are reached.  That may have arrived.  Corporate earnings season, while just getting started, has been mixed.

The first quarter for 2013 was relatively smooth with only one point during the period where stocks fell under extensive selling pressure.  This caused the Global Growth strategies to move to a defensive posture to lock-in gains and keep losses small.  Stocks recovered quickly and the strategies were reinvested four trade days later.  At this stage of the recovery there may be value for risk-managed growth investors to overweight high-quality dividend paying U.S. companies.

Economic growth in the U.S. continues to deliver inconsistent results.  The general trend points to a generally improving economy but sudden weakness periodically gives pause to the sustainability of the ongoing recovery.  The real key to any pullback in stocks, given The Feds commitment to fighting deflation, is the health of corporate earnings.  If the market anticipates weakness going forward stock prices are likely to adjust downward despite Fed liquidity efforts.  The depth and duration, however, may be limited.  Bonds appear to be in a trading range and will likely stay there for the foreseeable future.

The outcome of all the market intervention looks set; either economic growth becomes self-supporting or the accumulating debt pile eventually breaks down.  The timeline, of course, is unknowable.  This is not your typical investment environment.  I will continue to do my best to deal with it effectively.

Ratio Analysis Shows International Stocks Strength
07 December 12 07:10 AM | Brian Dightman

For those investors who have been paying attention there has been a dramatic difference between international and U.S. stock returns during the recovery rally. It has been tough going for international investors, the iShares Brazil Fund (EWZ) is down over 9% YTD. In addition to other international struggles, China's slowdown and ongoing Eurozone debt issues may continue to be challenges for global investors. However, the underperformance of international stocks could eventually turn into an opportunity. As we come to the end of the year, international stocks are showing some signs of strength and deserve a closer look.

U.S. stocks have outpaced international stocks for most of the recovery rally by a factor of nearly two. If you compare the actual price action between the two securities listed below you will find broad U.S. stock indexes have delivered about twice the gains broad international stocks indexes did during the period. This is one of the reasons ratio and relative strength analysis can be helpful in making investment selections. This type of analysis would have kept an investor more heavily weighted, if not exclusively, in U.S. equities during most of the period.

A price ratio analysis compares the relative strength between two investments. In the chart below, the Vanguard Total Market Fund (VTI) is used to represent U.S. stocks and the Vanguard MSCI EAFE Fund (VEA) is used to represent international stocks. When the line is rising VTI is out outperforming and when it is falling VEA is outperforming. Other than a few brief periods, U.S. stocks have outperformed international stocks since the recovery rally of 2009.

When we reverse the order of VTI & VEA it makes it easier to identify the directional change. In the next chart VEA is outperforming VTI when the line is rising. We have seen this before; it is too early to tell if this will be sustained but it is worth noting and potentially taking some action.

We can perform the same ratio analysis to determine which regions are leading the international category.

Starting south of the boarder, Latin America 40 Index iShares (ILF) is struggling relative to its international peers.

Moving to Asia, the iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ) is showing some signs of leadership.

The iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) is also showing some signs of leadership.

Across the Atlantic, we can see the Vanguard European Fund (VGK) was very strong late summer but has drifted sideways since.

The SPDR DJ International Real Estate Fund (RWX) is another international investment worth consideration.

As you can see from the chart above, the ratio was very strong mid-year but has started to weaken a bit recently. Ideally RWX will confirm its leadership by moving its ratio to new high ground in the coming weeks. RWX delivers the added feature of providing some exposure to Europe without owning the region individually. Approximately 30% of the fund's investments are located in Europe.

Investors would be wise to keep an eye on international investment categories. Improving economic data out of Asia and more stable debt markets in Europe appear to have helped investment performance in those regions. Should conditions continue to improve international investments may be poised to outperform as we move into 2013.

Disclosure: I am long AAXJ, RWX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are subject to risks including loss of principal. This presentation is for informational purposes only and is neither an offer to sell or buy any securities. A variety of sources we consider reliable have provided information for this presentation but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.

Internet Stocks Lead Market Higher
30 November 12 05:28 AM | Brian Dightman

After a pullback on the NASDAQ of nearly 11% markets have started to rally again.  If you used the pullback to generate cash, your next order of business is determining if the current rally is sustainable and where to invest next.

Rally attempts that are triggered during a holiday shortened week are suspect in my mind but we can't ignore the fact that markets changed direction last week, even if many traders were home watching their favorite football game while eating Thanksgiving leftovers.

From a broad market perspective there are some mildly bullish developments underway.  Other than a little bit of selling early in the week, most of the action has been to the upside.  Volume has not been as convincing as I would like, but that could still develop.  As of the close Thursday, the NASDAQ is up nearly 7% from mid-November lows.  Second, some leading stocks have broken out and others are setting up bases.  Granted, the current round of leading stocks are not the highest quality; that could also still develop.

The most challenging aspect of recent market action has been the impact of Fiscal Cliff progress or lack thereof.  Not exactly what you want driving the market, but that is what we have to navigate.  It is fair to say we have a broad market rally underway; now we need to look at specific investment opportunities.

During the pullback I built my watch list of stocks.  A couple of industry groups stood out to me and Internet stocks was one of them. If you have not noticed, Yahoo (YHOO), Facebook (FB), Ebay (EBAY) and others have nice rallies underway.  It may be late to pick-up shares of Yahoo; EBay and Facebook are somewhat less extended. Another way to participate in this segment of the market, especially given timing and the type of rally underway, is through the First Trust Internet ETF (FDN).  As you would expect, FDN has been performing in line with some of its top holdings, which include:




Together the four stocks above represent approximately 28% of FDN according to the First Trust website as of November 28th, 2012.  The top 10 positions represent approximately 52% of the fund and include: Priceline (PCLN), Yahoo (YHOO), Salesforce (CRM), Juniper (JNPR),Rackspace (RAX) and Netflix (NFLX) - overall some pretty decent companies.  Many investors may have opted to own the individual stocks which may explain why the AUM of FDN is below where it could be given the liquidity of its holdings.

It is a little disappointing the Internet segment isn't being led by younger companies and that may point to the maturity of the current rally.  FB is the only recent IPO of the group mentioned above.  LinkedIn (LNKD) is also included in FDN and appears to be taking a bit of a breather after a very successful IPO.

Internet leadership is a welcome element in the current rally but there are many reasons to be cautious here with the fiscal cliff banter an added element of uncertainty.  I am not optimistic the two sides will be able to agree.  The Dems want to focus on revenue and The GOP appear willing to concede to some degree on the issue but want spending addressed, which so far has gone unanswered.  Politicians love to give things away, even if they can't possibly pay for them. Both parties know the Debt Ceiling is going to be hit in early 2013, an added dynamic.

The best we can do is let the market set the direction, identify the stocks that are leading and implement the appropriate risk management for the macro environment.  Right now the market is suggesting that if we do get a Santa Claus Rally the Internet Sector is poised to deliver some Christmas gains.

Disclosure:  I am long FDN

Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Investments are subject to risks including loss of principal.  This presentation is for informational purposes only and is neither an offer to sell or buy any securities.  A variety of sources we consider reliable have provided information for this presentation but we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.

Will The Rally Attempt Be Confirmed?
21 November 12 12:41 PM | Brian Dightman

A quick update on markets and the Global Growth strategies by Dightman Capital.

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving and I hope you are able to spend some quality time with your friends and family over a delicious Thanksgiving meal.  As a result of the holiday, this week's trading volume is going to be light.  Markets will be closed tomorrow and the trading session on Friday with be shortened.

Last Friday the market staged a rally attempt that could mark the end of the current correction.  A follow-through day will confirm the change in the stock market direction.  A follow-through confirmation sometime early next week is more likely, the Thanksgiving holiday will probably prevent a follow-though from happening this week due to lighter than normal trading volume.   As of mid-session trading today, the NASDAQ remains 8.5% below September highs, with the S&P 500 down 5.7%.

Leading stocks have been acting fairly well which improves the possibility we will see a follow-through to the upside.  However, trouble in the Eurozone and the U.S. Fiscal cliff discussions are strong headwinds for stocks to contend with.

At present the Dightman Capital Global Growth Strategies hold positions in the Absolute Return Fund, the Absolute Opportunity Fund and the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bonds fund.  If market conditions improve the defensive moves made in mid-October generated cash that can now be deploy at potentially attractive entry points on some ETFs and stocks that look poised to advance.  If, on the other hand, markets respond negatively to developments out of Europe, the Middle East or fiscal cliff negotiations, we stand firmly in a defensive posture.

Looking Ahead To Q4 2012
03 October 12 08:32 AM | Brian Dightman

Precious metals have rallied in response to recent global monetary policy announcements.  There are practical limitations, like the debt ceiling limit in the U.S. (about to be reached again) which may create future challenges for The Fed; for now monetary authorities are fully committed to driving stock prices higher for the foreseeable future.

After lagging U.S. Stocks, international stocks may be in the early stages of a new uptrend.  The iShares MSCI Emerging Market Fund (EEM) traded as high as $50.19 in 2011.  Yesterday EEM closed at $41.80.

There remain many reasons to be cautious but global stocks continue to rally in response to policy announcements.  The U.S. and global economy remains soft and structural issues in the stock market, like leveraged banks and high frequency trading, remain reasons for concern.  We are also 3 ½ years into the recovery rally; stock rallies do not continue indefinitely.

I am going on the premise the current rally will continue but I am well aware that we may be in the final stage. There may be an opportunity to take advantage of the improving performance of international stocks and the pullback in the market overall.  I also recognize overall sentiment may be problematic.  From market commentator Bob Farrell's rule #9, "When all the experts and forecasts agree - something else is going to happen."

Current Investment Environment in 10 Sentences
25 September 12 01:22 PM | Brian Dightman

The Fed and ECB must be very concerned about the health of individual countries and the global economy to have embarked on open ended quantitative easing (QE) policies.

Central banks can expand their balance sheets significantly if Japan is any measure, with a debt to GDP ratio of approximately 200%.

At some point in their bond buying, perhaps many years from now, the Fed will stop buying bonds and this may be when long-bond rates will jump.

A cheaper Euro would help the periphery countries recover but policy makers appear unwilling to let it fall, perhaps due to all the bonds sitting on bank balances sheets.

As much as two-thirds of the stock trading on the NYSE and Nasdaq may come from automated systems, which the SEC is investigating, given the potential for aggravated market swings if the systems go haywire.

The Swiss National Bank's fight to devalue the Swiss Franc with their $635Bn economy against a $4Tn currency market is a great example of how ridiculous central bank "unlimited" policy announcements have become.

There is tremendous slack in the economy: production, wage growth, and employment are all well below optimal levels.

Quite remarkably, many corporations have been able to squeeze their operating environments through initiatives like closing factories, holding down wages and limiting investments to produce an impressive recovery in earnings for longer than many analysis expected.

The transportation industry is a good bellwether for the broad economy; I have posted commentary which may be helpful in gauging near-term activity.

Debt can be a powerful tool when it is deployed in a manner that generates a rate of return that exceeds its cost; watch GDP growth closely for clues about the return on investment from QE measures.

My Current Approach In One Paragraph

My full global growth strategies own primarily defensive and income producing equity investments.  Treasuries and gold offer some risk management.  Low volatility mutual funds add investment strategies to my approach.  I will be looking for opportunities to add more risk assets and reduce cash levels to position for a potentially prolonged QE stimulated rally in U.S. stocks.

Three Sentence Summary

  • The QE driven rally could continue for a considerable period.
  • The current environment may include opaque risks.
  • The present market appears over bought and susceptible to a pullback.

Let me know if you have any questions.  Be careful, pay attention and I am always available if you have questions.

Transports In Trouble
21 September 12 08:05 AM | Brian Dightman | 1 comment(s)

It did not take long for the transports to demonstrate weakness I wrote about on the 13th and 17th, despite a rally in the broader market.

The current market is not acting rationally in the face of deteriorating economics, poor earnings guidance and a rally up to QE3.  It appears the market is clinging to the open-ended monetary policies of the U.S. and Europe, which could drive the market high for much longer, and the earnings of a handful of corporations that are producing outstanding results.

Without the transports rallying along with the broader market, however, the likelihood stocks can continue the current rally is reduced.  The performance divergence seen below between the Transportation Index ($TRAN in red) and the Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU in blue), in combination with the overall economic environment, may be providing investors with an early warning to consider reduced risk levels.  We will have to wait and see if the market delivers a constructive pullback of 5-10% or something more severe; with serious economic headwinds and questionable market internals a pullback of some sort seems highly likely.

Weakness In Transports A Warning
17 September 12 12:45 PM | Brian Dightman | 1 comment(s)

I recently highlighted the Dow Transportation Index here; the following is an update.

Another troubling development with the transports is the convergence of moving averages.  The Dow Transports are in their 8th month of sideways trading.  When this happens moving averages come together.  In an appreciating market shorter-term moving averages stay above longer-term moving averages.  In the example below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are sitting on top of each other indicating there has been little price advance in the last 200 & 50 days.

Using simple moving averages (where each price is weighted equally), the 50-day (blue line) has fallen below the 200-day (red line) moving average.  This is generally a bearish development.  If the 50 moves further below the 200 will start to slope down suggesting a major trend reversal.

When we look at the same moving averages based on exponential calculations (where recent prices are weighted more heavily) we notice that the 50-day (blue line) has formed a negative divergence, where the advance in August was not able to rise above the rise in July.

If we look at the same index over a different time frame we see there is still hope for the Transports.  On a weekly chart the index is trading right above the 50–day.  This is considered an important support level and if broken would also support a likely trend reversal.

If we step back further and look at the index from the start of the 2009 recovery rally we can see a very clear uptrend from 2009 through most of 2011, then a big sell-off.  Since the 2011 self-off the index has not been able to recover and continues to look like it is going to roll-over.

Weakness in the transports is not surprising; it is a direct result of weakness in the economy which data has been confirming for the last several months.

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